Sunday 20 November 2016, 18:00
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
60%
25%
15%
Home win
60.3%
Draw
25.0%
Away win
14.7%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Draw | 25.0% | 4.00 | — | — |
| Caen | 14.7% | 6.82 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.7% | 10.27 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 30.2% | 3.31 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 43.0% | 2.33 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 22.1% | 4.52 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 9.6% | 10.44 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 90.4% | 1.11 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
| No | 58.0% | 1.73 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Marseille / Caen | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Draw / Caen | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.7
|
5.8
|
2.3
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
14.7
|
11.5
|
3.9
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
13.0
|
9.2
|
3.3
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
7.3
|
5.2
|
1.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
3.1
|
2.2
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
1.0
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2019
Caen
0-1
Marseille
Oct 2018
Marseille
2-0
Caen
Jan 2018
Caen
0-2
Marseille
Nov 2017
Marseille
5-0
Caen
Apr 2017
Caen
1-5
Marseille
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.