Sunday 7 October 2018, 18:00
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
72%
18%
10%
Home win
72.1%
Draw
17.9%
Away win
10.0%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Draw | 17.9% | 5.59 | — | — |
| Caen | 10.0% | 9.98 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.0% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.0% | 20.05 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 18.0% | 5.56 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | 2.49 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 37.5% | 2.67 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 20.2% | 4.96 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
| No | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 90.0% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Marseille / Caen | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Draw / Caen | 27.9% | 3.58 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.0
|
3.0
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
10.0
|
8.5
|
3.1
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.3
|
9.4
|
3.6
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
9.6
|
7.3
|
2.8
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
5.6
|
4.3
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.6
|
2.0
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2019
Caen
0-1
Marseille
Jan 2018
Caen
0-2
Marseille
Nov 2017
Marseille
5-0
Caen
Apr 2017
Caen
1-5
Marseille
Nov 2016
Marseille
1-0
Caen
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.