Sunday 23 September 2018, 22:00
Groupama Stadium
Full time
50%
22%
28%
Home win
50.3%
Draw
22.2%
Away win
27.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Draw | 22.2% | 4.50 | — | — |
| Marseille | 27.5% | 3.63 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.7% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.3% | 30.39 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 87.8% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 12.2% | 8.21 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 30.5% | 3.28 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 48.2% | 2.08 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 29.1% | 3.44 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| No | 31.3% | 3.19 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon / Draw | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Lyon / Marseille | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Draw / Marseille | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.3
|
3.7
|
3.2
|
1.6
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
| 1 |
5.2
|
9.2
|
6.6
|
3.3
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
| 2 |
6.0
|
9.0
|
6.8
|
3.4
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
| 3 |
4.1
|
6.2
|
4.7
|
2.4
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
| 4 |
2.1
|
3.2
|
2.4
|
1.2
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
0.9
|
1.3
|
1.0
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Marseille
3-2
Lyon
Aug 2025
Lyon
1-0
Marseille
Feb 2025
Marseille
3-2
Lyon
Sep 2024
Lyon
2-3
Marseille
Feb 2024
Lyon
1-0
Marseille
Dec 2023
Marseille
3-0
Lyon
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.