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Sunday 23 September 2018, 22:00 Groupama Stadium Full time
4–2
HT 1–1
50% 22% 28%
Home win
50.3%
Draw
22.2%
Away win
27.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lyon 50.3% 1.99
Draw 22.2% 4.50
Marseille 27.5% 3.63

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.7% 1.03
Under 0.5 3.3% 30.39
Over 1.5 87.8% 1.14
Under 1.5 12.2% 8.21
Over 2.5 69.5% 1.44
Under 2.5 30.5% 3.28
Over 3.5 48.2% 2.08
Under 3.5 51.8% 1.93
Over 4.5 29.1% 3.44
Under 4.5 70.9% 1.41

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 68.7% 1.46
No 31.3% 3.19

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lyon / Draw 72.5% 1.38
Lyon / Marseille 77.8% 1.29
Draw / Marseille 49.7% 2.01

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.3
3.7
3.2
1.6
0.6
0.2
1
5.2
9.2
6.6
3.3
1.2
0.4
2
6.0
9.0
6.8
3.4
1.3
0.4
3
4.1
6.2
4.7
2.4
0.9
0.3
4
2.1
3.2
2.4
1.2
0.5
0.1
5
0.9
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Marseille goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.