Friday 10 August 2018, 21:45
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
66%
21%
13%
Home win
66.1%
Draw
21.1%
Away win
12.7%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Draw | 21.1% | 4.73 | — | — |
| Toulouse | 12.7% | 7.85 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.4% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.6% | 15.21 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 22.3% | 4.48 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | 2.14 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 31.1% | 3.22 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 15.4% | 6.48 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
| No | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Marseille / Toulouse | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Draw / Toulouse | 33.9% | 2.95 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.6
|
4.1
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
11.6
|
10.1
|
3.7
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.4
|
9.7
|
3.8
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
8.4
|
6.6
|
2.6
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
4.3
|
3.3
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
1.7
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Toulouse
0-1
Marseille
Nov 2025
Marseille
2-2
Toulouse
Apr 2025
Marseille
3-2
Toulouse
Aug 2024
Toulouse
1-3
Marseille
Apr 2024
Toulouse
2-2
Marseille
Sep 2023
Marseille
0-0
Toulouse
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.