Value bets
A selection appears here when the model's probability multiplied by the best price on offer comes to more than one. Nothing below 8% is listed — a smaller gap than that sits inside the model's own error and would be noise dressed up as a recommendation.
18+ These are statistical observations about prices, not advice to place a bet. An edge is an expectation over hundreds of bets, not a prediction about any single one, and a losing run inside a genuine edge is normal. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose.
Open picks
| Match | Selection | Model | Market | Odds | Edge | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Olympiakos Piraeus — Atromitos
Sat 22 Aug, 21:30
|
Atromitos
Match result
|
9.8% | 8.6% | 15.00 Bet365 | +46.5% | 0.83% |
|
PAOK — Levadiakos
Sun 23 Aug, 21:00
|
Over 4.5
Goals over/under
|
28.2% | 19.5% | 5.00 Bet365 | +40.9% | 2.56% |
|
Olympiakos Piraeus — Atromitos
Sat 22 Aug, 21:30
|
Draw / Atromitos
Double chance
|
30.9% | 23.8% | 4.50 Bet365 | +39.2% | 2.80% |
|
PAOK — Levadiakos
Sun 23 Aug, 21:00
|
Over 3.5
Goals over/under
|
47.2% | 35.8% | 2.67 Betano | +25.9% | 3.88% |
|
PAOK — Levadiakos
Sun 23 Aug, 21:00
|
Levadiakos
Match result
|
14.0% | 12.6% | 9.00 Bet365 | +25.7% | 0.80% |
|
Olympiakos Piraeus — Atromitos
Sat 22 Aug, 21:30
|
Draw
Match result
|
21.2% | 16.6% | 5.80 Dafabet | +22.8% | 1.19% |
|
PAOK — Levadiakos
Sun 23 Aug, 21:00
|
Yes
Both teams to score
|
60.4% | 48.6% | 2.00 Bet365 | +20.8% | 5.00% |
|
Olympiakos Piraeus — Atromitos
Sat 22 Aug, 21:30
|
Under 1.5
Goals over/under
|
27.8% | 24.4% | 4.33 Bet365 | +20.2% | 1.52% |
|
Olympiakos Piraeus — Atromitos
Sat 22 Aug, 21:30
|
Under 2.5
Goals over/under
|
53.9% | 45.6% | 2.18 Betano | +17.4% | 3.69% |
|
PAOK — Levadiakos
Sun 23 Aug, 21:00
|
Over 2.5
Goals over/under
|
68.6% | 57.2% | 1.70 Betano | +16.7% | 5.00% |
|
Kalamata — Aris Thessalonikis
Sat 22 Aug, 20:00
|
Kalamata
Match result
|
28.4% | 26.8% | 4.00 Bet365 | +13.8% | 1.15% |
|
Olympiakos Piraeus — Atromitos
Sat 22 Aug, 21:30
|
Under 0.5
Goals over/under
|
8.6% | 7.4% | 13.00 Bet365 | +11.6% | 0.24% |
|
AEK Athens FC — Iraklis 1908
Sat 22 Aug, 20:00
|
Under 2.5
Goals over/under
|
43.4% | 36.7% | 2.57 Pinnacle | +11.4% | 1.82% |
|
Olympiakos Piraeus — Atromitos
Sat 22 Aug, 21:30
|
Under 3.5
Goals over/under
|
75.3% | 67.3% | 1.47 Betano | +10.7% | 5.00% |
|
OFI — Volos NFC
Sun 23 Aug, 19:30
|
OFI
Match result
|
51.2% | 43.8% | 2.16 Pinnacle | +10.6% | 2.28% |
|
AEK Athens FC — Iraklis 1908
Sat 22 Aug, 20:00
|
Draw
Match result
|
16.7% | 14.3% | 6.54 Pinnacle | +9.3% | 0.42% |
|
AEK Athens FC — Iraklis 1908
Sat 22 Aug, 20:00
|
Draw / Iraklis 1908
Double chance
|
24.2% | 21.1% | 4.50 Betfair | +8.9% | 0.63% |
Market column is the best book's price with its margin removed. Stake is a quarter of the Kelly fraction as a percentage of bankroll — full Kelly assumes the model is exactly right, which it is not.