Saturday 21 April 2018, 18:00
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
68%
20%
12%
Home win
68.4%
Draw
19.7%
Away win
11.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Draw | 19.7% | 5.08 | — | — |
| Lille | 11.9% | 8.38 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94.4% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.6% | 17.98 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 19.5% | 5.12 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 35.0% | 2.85 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 18.3% | 5.47 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
| No | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 88.1% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Marseille / Lille | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Draw / Lille | 31.6% | 3.16 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.6
|
3.5
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
10.5
|
9.4
|
3.6
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
12.0
|
9.7
|
3.9
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
8.7
|
7.0
|
2.8
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
4.8
|
3.8
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.1
|
1.7
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Marseille
1-2
Lille
Dec 2025
Lille
1-0
Marseille
May 2025
Lille
1-1
Marseille
Dec 2024
Marseille
1-1
Lille
Apr 2024
Lille
3-1
Marseille
Nov 2023
Marseille
0-0
Lille
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.