Sunday 18 March 2018, 22:00
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
48%
23%
29%
Home win
48.1%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
28.7%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
| Draw | 23.2% | 4.31 | — | — |
| Lyon | 28.7% | 3.48 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.1% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.9% | 25.56 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 14.1% | 7.07 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 25.5% | 3.92 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| No | 33.7% | 2.97 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Marseille / Lyon | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Draw / Lyon | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.9
|
4.3
|
3.6
|
1.7
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
| 1 |
5.9
|
10.0
|
6.9
|
3.4
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
| 2 |
6.3
|
9.2
|
6.7
|
3.3
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
| 3 |
4.0
|
5.9
|
4.3
|
2.1
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 4 |
1.9
|
2.9
|
2.1
|
1.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
0.8
|
1.1
|
0.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Marseille
3-2
Lyon
Aug 2025
Lyon
1-0
Marseille
Feb 2025
Marseille
3-2
Lyon
Sep 2024
Lyon
2-3
Marseille
Feb 2024
Lyon
1-0
Marseille
Dec 2023
Marseille
3-0
Lyon
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.