Sunday 16 September 2018, 22:00
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
71%
17%
12%
Home win
71.0%
Draw
17.1%
Away win
11.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Draw | 17.1% | 5.83 | — | — |
| Guingamp | 11.9% | 8.41 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.7% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.3% | 29.90 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 12.8% | 7.84 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 31.4% | 3.19 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 28.2% | 3.55 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| No | 41.9% | 2.39 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 88.1% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Marseille / Guingamp | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Draw / Guingamp | 29.0% | 3.44 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.3
|
2.4
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
7.0
|
7.7
|
3.6
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
9.5
|
9.3
|
4.6
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
8.1
|
7.9
|
3.9
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
5.2
|
5.1
|
2.5
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.6
|
2.6
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2019
Guingamp
1-3
Marseille
May 2018
Guingamp
3-3
Marseille
Nov 2017
Marseille
1-0
Guingamp
Feb 2017
Marseille
2-0
Guingamp
Aug 2016
Guingamp
2-1
Marseille
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.