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Sunday 30 September 2018, 22:00 Stade Pierre-Mauroy Full time
3–0
HT 0–0
26% 24% 50%
Home win
26.2%
Draw
24.1%
Away win
49.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lille 26.2% 3.82
Draw 24.1% 4.14
Marseille 49.7% 2.01

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.9% 1.05
Under 0.5 5.1% 19.60
Over 1.5 82.2% 1.22
Under 1.5 17.8% 5.63
Over 2.5 60.0% 1.67
Under 2.5 40.0% 2.50
Over 3.5 37.7% 2.66
Under 3.5 62.3% 1.60
Over 4.5 20.3% 4.93
Under 4.5 79.7% 1.25

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 61.2% 1.63
No 38.8% 2.58

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lille / Draw 50.3% 1.99
Lille / Marseille 75.9% 1.32
Draw / Marseille 73.8% 1.35

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.1
7.6
7.5
4.6
2.1
0.8
1
5.1
11.1
9.6
5.8
2.7
1.0
2
3.7
6.7
6.1
3.7
1.7
0.6
3
1.6
2.9
2.6
1.6
0.7
0.3
4
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Marseille goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.