Sunday 5 November 2017, 18:00
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
69%
20%
11%
Home win
69.2%
Draw
20.0%
Away win
10.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Draw | 20.0% | 5.00 | — | — |
| Caen | 10.8% | 9.27 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 93.4% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 6.6% | 15.17 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 22.5% | 4.45 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 30.9% | 3.24 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 15.3% | 6.54 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 44.9% | 2.23 | — | — |
| No | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 89.2% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Marseille / Caen | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Draw / Caen | 30.8% | 3.25 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.6
|
3.7
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
12.2
|
9.5
|
3.2
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
13.3
|
9.4
|
3.3
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
9.3
|
6.6
|
2.3
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
4.9
|
3.5
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.1
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2019
Caen
0-1
Marseille
Oct 2018
Marseille
2-0
Caen
Jan 2018
Caen
0-2
Marseille
Apr 2017
Caen
1-5
Marseille
Nov 2016
Marseille
1-0
Caen
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.