Sunday 24 September 2017, 22:00
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
57%
26%
17%
Home win
56.6%
Draw
26.0%
Away win
17.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.0% | 3.84 | — | — |
| Toulouse | 17.3% | 5.77 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.7% | 10.36 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 29.9% | 3.34 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 22.4% | 4.47 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 9.7% | 10.28 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
| No | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 82.7% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Marseille / Toulouse | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Draw / Toulouse | 43.4% | 2.31 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.7
|
6.4
|
2.8
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
13.9
|
12.2
|
4.5
|
1.2
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
11.8
|
9.3
|
3.7
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
6.4
|
5.0
|
2.0
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
2.6
|
2.0
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Toulouse
0-1
Marseille
Nov 2025
Marseille
2-2
Toulouse
Apr 2025
Marseille
3-2
Toulouse
Aug 2024
Toulouse
1-3
Marseille
Apr 2024
Toulouse
2-2
Marseille
Sep 2023
Marseille
0-0
Toulouse
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.