Sunday 16 October 2016, 21:45
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
61%
22%
17%
Home win
61.2%
Draw
21.7%
Away win
17.1%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Draw | 21.7% | 4.62 | — | — |
| Metz | 17.1% | 5.83 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94.9% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.1% | 19.60 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 18.0% | 5.57 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 37.4% | 2.67 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 20.1% | 4.98 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| No | 43.6% | 2.30 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Marseille / Metz | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Draw / Metz | 38.8% | 2.58 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.1
|
4.0
|
2.3
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
8.8
|
10.1
|
4.9
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
9.8
|
9.9
|
5.1
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
6.8
|
6.9
|
3.5
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
3.5
|
3.6
|
1.8
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
1.5
|
1.5
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Marseille
3-1
Metz
Oct 2025
Metz
0-3
Marseille
Feb 2024
Marseille
1-1
Metz
Aug 2023
Metz
2-2
Marseille
Feb 2022
Metz
1-2
Marseille
Nov 2021
Marseille
0-0
Metz
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.