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Sunday 25 September 2016, 21:45 Orange Vélodrome Full time
2–1
HT 1–1
51% 31% 17%
Home win
51.2%
Draw
31.3%
Away win
17.5%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Marseille 51.2% 1.95
Draw 31.3% 3.19
Nantes 17.5% 5.72

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 83.8% 1.19
Under 0.5 16.2% 6.17
Over 1.5 56.3% 1.78
Under 1.5 43.7% 2.29
Over 2.5 28.7% 3.49
Under 2.5 71.3% 1.40
Over 3.5 11.9% 8.39
Under 3.5 88.1% 1.14
Over 4.5 4.1% 24.25
Under 4.5 95.9% 1.04

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 33.4% 2.99
No 66.6% 1.50

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Marseille / Draw 82.5% 1.21
Marseille / Nantes 68.7% 1.46
Draw / Nantes 48.8% 2.05

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
16.2
8.8
2.9
0.6
0.1
0.0
1
18.7
12.6
3.6
0.7
0.1
0.0
2
12.1
7.4
2.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
3
5.1
3.1
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
4
1.6
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Nantes goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.