Sunday 18 September 2016, 21:45
Orange Vélodrome
Full time
50%
24%
26%
Home win
49.9%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
26.3%
Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Draw | 23.9% | 4.19 | — | — |
| Lyon | 26.3% | 3.81 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.2% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.8% | 20.75 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 16.9% | 5.91 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 38.6% | 2.59 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 21.4% | 4.68 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| No | 37.8% | 2.65 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille / Draw | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Marseille / Lyon | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Draw / Lyon | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.8
|
4.9
|
3.6
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
7.2
|
10.8
|
6.7
|
2.9
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
7.3
|
9.5
|
6.2
|
2.7
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
4.5
|
5.9
|
3.9
|
1.7
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
2.1
|
2.8
|
1.8
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
0.8
|
1.0
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Marseille
3-2
Lyon
Aug 2025
Lyon
1-0
Marseille
Feb 2025
Marseille
3-2
Lyon
Sep 2024
Lyon
2-3
Marseille
Feb 2024
Lyon
1-0
Marseille
Dec 2023
Marseille
3-0
Lyon
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.