Saturday 27 October 2018, 21:00
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Full time
54%
27%
19%
Home win
54.1%
Draw
27.3%
Away win
18.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Draw | 27.3% | 3.66 | — | — |
| Caen | 18.6% | 5.38 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89.3% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.7% | 9.37 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 32.2% | 3.10 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 40.6% | 2.47 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 20.2% | 4.95 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.4% | 11.84 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 91.6% | 1.09 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
| No | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille / Draw | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Lille / Caen | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Draw / Caen | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
10.7
|
7.1
|
3.1
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
14.4
|
12.6
|
4.7
|
1.2
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
11.5
|
9.0
|
3.6
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
5.8
|
4.6
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
2.2
|
1.7
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.7
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2019
Caen
1-3
Lille
Jan 2018
Caen
0-1
Lille
Aug 2017
Lille
0-2
Caen
Feb 2017
Caen
0-1
Lille
Nov 2016
Lille
4-2
Caen
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.