Saturday 15 April 2017, 17:00
Vicarage Road
Full time
53%
24%
24%
Home win
52.6%
Draw
23.5%
Away win
23.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Draw | 23.5% | 4.25 | — | — |
| Swansea | 23.9% | 4.19 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.0% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.0% | 20.17 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 17.4% | 5.76 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 38.3% | 2.61 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 20.8% | 4.81 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| No | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford / Draw | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Watford / Swansea | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Draw / Swansea | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.0
|
4.7
|
3.3
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
7.7
|
10.8
|
6.3
|
2.6
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
7.9
|
9.7
|
6.0
|
2.4
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
5.0
|
6.2
|
3.8
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
2.4
|
2.9
|
1.8
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
0.9
|
1.1
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.