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Saturday 15 April 2017, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
1–0
HT 1–0
53% 24% 24%
Home win
52.6%
Draw
23.5%
Away win
23.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 52.6% 1.90
Draw 23.5% 4.25
Swansea 23.9% 4.19

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.0% 1.05
Under 0.5 5.0% 20.17
Over 1.5 82.6% 1.21
Under 1.5 17.4% 5.76
Over 2.5 60.6% 1.65
Under 2.5 39.4% 2.54
Over 3.5 38.3% 2.61
Under 3.5 61.7% 1.62
Over 4.5 20.8% 4.81
Under 4.5 79.2% 1.26

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.8% 1.64
No 39.2% 2.55

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 76.1% 1.31
Watford / Swansea 76.5% 1.31
Draw / Swansea 47.4% 2.11

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.0
4.7
3.3
1.3
0.4
0.1
1
7.7
10.8
6.3
2.6
0.8
0.2
2
7.9
9.7
6.0
2.4
0.8
0.2
3
5.0
6.2
3.8
1.6
0.5
0.1
4
2.4
2.9
1.8
0.7
0.2
0.1
5
0.9
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.