Saturday 4 March 2017, 17:00
Vicarage Road
Full time
39%
29%
33%
Home win
38.7%
Draw
28.8%
Away win
32.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 38.7% | 2.59 | — | — |
| Draw | 28.8% | 3.47 | — | — |
| Southampton | 32.5% | 3.08 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.6% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.4% | 10.62 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 29.0% | 3.44 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 23.1% | 4.32 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 10.2% | 9.80 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 89.8% | 1.11 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| No | 49.5% | 2.02 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford / Draw | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Watford / Southampton | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Draw / Southampton | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.4
|
9.3
|
5.8
|
2.2
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 1 |
10.4
|
13.7
|
7.5
|
2.9
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
7.2
|
8.3
|
4.8
|
1.9
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
3.1
|
3.6
|
2.1
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
1.0
|
1.2
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2022
Southampton
1-2
Watford
Oct 2021
Watford
0-1
Southampton
Jun 2020
Watford
1-3
Southampton
Nov 2019
Southampton
2-1
Watford
Apr 2019
Watford
1-1
Southampton
Nov 2018
Southampton
1-1
Watford
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.