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Saturday 4 March 2017, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
39% 29% 33%
Home win
38.7%
Draw
28.8%
Away win
32.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 38.7% 2.59
Draw 28.8% 3.47
Southampton 32.5% 3.08

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.6% 1.10
Under 0.5 9.4% 10.62
Over 1.5 71.0% 1.41
Under 1.5 29.0% 3.44
Over 2.5 44.3% 2.26
Under 2.5 55.7% 1.79
Over 3.5 23.1% 4.32
Under 3.5 76.9% 1.30
Over 4.5 10.2% 9.80
Under 4.5 89.8% 1.11

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 50.5% 1.98
No 49.5% 2.02

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 67.5% 1.48
Watford / Southampton 71.2% 1.40
Draw / Southampton 61.3% 1.63

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.4
9.3
5.8
2.2
0.7
0.2
1
10.4
13.7
7.5
2.9
0.8
0.2
2
7.2
8.3
4.8
1.9
0.5
0.1
3
3.1
3.6
2.1
0.8
0.2
0.1
4
1.0
1.2
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.