Tuesday 31 January 2017, 21:45
Emirates Stadium
Full time
79%
14%
7%
Home win
78.8%
Draw
13.7%
Away win
7.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Draw | 13.7% | 7.28 | — | — |
| Watford | 7.4% | 13.43 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 97.0% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.0% | 33.48 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 88.2% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 11.8% | 8.45 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 30.1% | 3.32 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| No | 47.7% | 2.10 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal / Draw | 92.6% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Arsenal / Watford | 86.3% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Draw / Watford | 21.2% | 4.72 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.0
|
1.8
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
7.1
|
6.3
|
2.4
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
10.6
|
8.5
|
3.4
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
10.0
|
8.0
|
3.2
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
7.1
|
5.7
|
2.3
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
4.0
|
3.2
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2022
Watford
2-3
Arsenal
Nov 2021
Arsenal
1-0
Watford
Jul 2020
Arsenal
3-2
Watford
Sep 2019
Watford
2-2
Arsenal
Apr 2019
Watford
0-1
Arsenal
Sep 2018
Arsenal
2-0
Watford
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.