Sunday 22 January 2017, 16:15
Emirates Stadium
Full time
74%
17%
9%
Home win
74.2%
Draw
16.6%
Away win
9.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Draw | 16.6% | 6.02 | — | — |
| Burnley | 9.2% | 10.86 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.7% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.3% | 23.16 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 16.0% | 6.24 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | 2.71 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 40.9% | 2.45 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 22.9% | 4.38 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
| No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal / Draw | 90.8% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Arsenal / Burnley | 83.4% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Draw / Burnley | 25.8% | 3.87 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.3
|
2.6
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
9.1
|
7.9
|
2.9
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
11.9
|
9.2
|
3.6
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
9.8
|
7.6
|
2.9
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
6.1
|
4.7
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
3.0
|
2.3
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Arsenal
1-0
Burnley
Nov 2025
Burnley
0-2
Arsenal
Feb 2024
Burnley
0-5
Arsenal
Nov 2023
Arsenal
3-1
Burnley
Jan 2022
Arsenal
0-0
Burnley
Sep 2021
Burnley
0-1
Arsenal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.