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Sunday 22 January 2017, 16:15 Emirates Stadium Full time
2–1
HT 0–0
74% 17% 9%
Home win
74.2%
Draw
16.6%
Away win
9.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 74.2% 1.35
Draw 16.6% 6.02
Burnley 9.2% 10.86

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.7% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.3% 23.16
Over 1.5 84.0% 1.19
Under 1.5 16.0% 6.24
Over 2.5 63.1% 1.59
Under 2.5 36.9% 2.71
Over 3.5 40.9% 2.45
Under 3.5 59.1% 1.69
Over 4.5 22.9% 4.38
Under 4.5 77.1% 1.30

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.8% 2.01
No 50.2% 1.99

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 90.8% 1.10
Arsenal / Burnley 83.4% 1.20
Draw / Burnley 25.8% 3.87

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.3
2.6
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
9.1
7.9
2.9
0.7
0.1
0.0
2
11.9
9.2
3.6
0.9
0.2
0.0
3
9.8
7.6
2.9
0.8
0.1
0.0
4
6.1
4.7
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
3.0
2.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.