Saturday 14 January 2017, 17:00
Turf Moor
Full time
41%
31%
28%
Home win
41.4%
Draw
30.8%
Away win
27.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 41.4% | 2.42 | — | — |
| Draw | 30.8% | 3.24 | — | — |
| Southampton | 27.8% | 3.60 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 87.5% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 12.5% | 7.98 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 36.2% | 2.76 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 16.9% | 5.90 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 6.6% | 15.06 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 93.4% | 1.07 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43.4% | 2.30 | — | — |
| No | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Burnley / Southampton | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Draw / Southampton | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
12.5
|
10.2
|
5.2
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
13.4
|
14.1
|
6.2
|
1.9
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
8.5
|
8.0
|
3.7
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
3.4
|
3.2
|
1.5
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.0
|
1.0
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2022
Burnley
2-0
Southampton
Oct 2021
Southampton
2-2
Burnley
Apr 2021
Southampton
3-2
Burnley
Sep 2020
Burnley
0-1
Southampton
Feb 2020
Southampton
1-2
Burnley
Aug 2019
Burnley
3-0
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.