Monday 2 January 2017, 17:00
Etihad Stadium
Full time
72%
18%
11%
Home win
71.5%
Draw
17.9%
Away win
10.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Draw | 17.9% | 5.59 | — | — |
| Burnley | 10.6% | 9.44 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.4% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.6% | 21.64 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 16.9% | 5.93 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 38.3% | 2.61 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 21.6% | 4.62 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| No | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City / Draw | 89.4% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Manchester City / Burnley | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Draw / Burnley | 28.5% | 3.51 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.6
|
2.9
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
9.3
|
8.5
|
3.3
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
11.6
|
9.5
|
3.9
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
9.2
|
7.5
|
3.0
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
5.4
|
4.4
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.6
|
2.1
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Burnley
0-1
Manchester City
Sep 2025
Manchester City
5-1
Burnley
Jan 2024
Manchester City
3-1
Burnley
Aug 2023
Burnley
0-3
Manchester City
Apr 2022
Burnley
0-2
Manchester City
Oct 2021
Manchester City
2-0
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.