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Wednesday 14 December 2016, 22:00 Etihad Stadium Full time
74% 15% 11%
Home win
73.6%
Draw
14.9%
Away win
11.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City 73.6% 1.36
Draw 14.9% 6.70
Watford 11.5% 8.73

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.0% 1.02
Under 0.5 2.0% 50.74
Over 1.5 92.0% 1.09
Under 1.5 8.0% 12.45
Over 2.5 77.8% 1.29
Under 2.5 22.2% 4.50
Over 3.5 58.8% 1.70
Under 3.5 41.2% 2.43
Over 4.5 39.3% 2.54
Under 4.5 60.7% 1.65

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 65.3% 1.53
No 34.7% 2.88

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City / Draw 88.5% 1.13
Manchester City / Watford 85.1% 1.18
Draw / Watford 26.4% 3.79

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.0
1.6
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
1
4.5
5.9
3.2
1.2
0.4
0.1
2
7.2
8.3
4.8
1.8
0.5
0.1
3
7.1
8.2
4.7
1.8
0.5
0.1
4
5.2
6.0
3.5
1.3
0.4
0.1
5
3.1
3.6
2.1
0.8
0.2
0.1
Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Watford goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.