Sunday 27 November 2016, 14:00
Vicarage Road
Full time
54%
24%
22%
Home win
54.1%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
22.1%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Draw | 23.7% | 4.21 | — | — |
| Stoke City | 22.1% | 4.52 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 94.4% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 5.6% | 18.01 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 19.1% | 5.23 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | 2.38 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 35.5% | 2.81 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 18.7% | 5.36 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| No | 41.9% | 2.38 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford / Draw | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Watford / Stoke City | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Draw / Stoke City | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.6
|
5.0
|
3.2
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
8.6
|
11.1
|
5.9
|
2.2
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
8.7
|
9.8
|
5.6
|
2.1
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
5.4
|
6.2
|
3.5
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
2.6
|
2.9
|
1.6
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
1.0
|
1.1
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.