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Saturday 28 October 2017, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
0–1
HT 0–1
45% 26% 29%
Home win
45.2%
Draw
25.9%
Away win
28.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 45.2% 2.21
Draw 25.9% 3.86
Stoke City 28.9% 3.46

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.6% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.4% 15.60
Over 1.5 78.6% 1.27
Under 1.5 21.4% 4.68
Over 2.5 54.5% 1.83
Under 2.5 45.5% 2.20
Over 3.5 32.2% 3.11
Under 3.5 67.8% 1.47
Over 4.5 16.2% 6.17
Under 4.5 83.8% 1.19

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 57.8% 1.73
No 42.2% 2.37

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 71.1% 1.41
Watford / Stoke City 74.1% 1.35
Draw / Stoke City 54.8% 1.82

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.4
6.5
4.5
1.9
0.6
0.1
1
8.5
12.2
7.2
3.0
0.9
0.2
2
7.4
9.3
5.8
2.4
0.8
0.2
3
4.0
5.0
3.1
1.3
0.4
0.1
4
1.6
2.0
1.3
0.5
0.2
0.0
5
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.