Skip to content
Saturday 14 October 2017, 19:30 Vicarage Road Full time
2–1
HT 0–1
20% 22% 57%
Home win
20.5%
Draw
22.5%
Away win
57.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 20.5% 4.88
Draw 22.5% 4.45
Arsenal 57.1% 1.75

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.2% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.8% 20.90
Over 1.5 83.1% 1.20
Under 1.5 16.9% 5.91
Over 2.5 61.4% 1.63
Under 2.5 38.6% 2.59
Over 3.5 39.1% 2.56
Under 3.5 60.9% 1.64
Over 4.5 21.4% 4.67
Under 4.5 78.6% 1.27

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 59.8% 1.67
No 40.2% 2.49

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 42.9% 2.33
Watford / Arsenal 77.5% 1.29
Draw / Arsenal 79.5% 1.26

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.8
7.9
8.6
5.8
2.9
1.2
1
4.2
10.3
9.9
6.7
3.4
1.4
2
2.8
5.6
5.7
3.8
1.9
0.8
3
1.1
2.1
2.2
1.5
0.7
0.3
4
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.