Saturday 29 September 2018, 17:00
Emirates Stadium
Full time
71%
17%
12%
Home win
70.8%
Draw
17.1%
Away win
12.1%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Draw | 17.1% | 5.86 | — | — |
| Watford | 12.1% | 8.24 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.8% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.2% | 31.47 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 87.8% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 12.2% | 8.20 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 30.4% | 3.29 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 29.2% | 3.42 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| No | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal / Draw | 87.9% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Arsenal / Watford | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Draw / Watford | 29.2% | 3.43 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.2
|
2.3
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
6.7
|
7.6
|
3.6
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
9.2
|
9.3
|
4.7
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
7.9
|
8.0
|
4.0
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
5.1
|
5.2
|
2.6
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.6
|
2.7
|
1.3
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2022
Watford
2-3
Arsenal
Nov 2021
Arsenal
1-0
Watford
Jul 2020
Arsenal
3-2
Watford
Sep 2019
Watford
2-2
Arsenal
Apr 2019
Watford
0-1
Arsenal
Mar 2018
Arsenal
3-0
Watford
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.