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Saturday 29 September 2018, 17:00 Emirates Stadium Full time
2–0
HT 0–0
71% 17% 12%
Home win
70.8%
Draw
17.1%
Away win
12.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 70.8% 1.41
Draw 17.1% 5.86
Watford 12.1% 8.24

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.8% 1.03
Under 0.5 3.2% 31.47
Over 1.5 87.8% 1.14
Under 1.5 12.2% 8.20
Over 2.5 69.6% 1.44
Under 2.5 30.4% 3.29
Over 3.5 48.4% 2.07
Under 3.5 51.6% 1.94
Over 4.5 29.2% 3.42
Under 4.5 70.8% 1.41

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 59.2% 1.69
No 40.8% 2.45

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 87.9% 1.14
Arsenal / Watford 82.9% 1.21
Draw / Watford 29.2% 3.43

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.2
2.3
1.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
6.7
7.6
3.6
1.2
0.3
0.1
2
9.2
9.3
4.7
1.6
0.4
0.1
3
7.9
8.0
4.0
1.4
0.3
0.1
4
5.1
5.2
2.6
0.9
0.2
0.0
5
2.6
2.7
1.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Watford goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.