Saturday 15 September 2018, 17:00
St James' Park
Full time
30%
27%
43%
Home win
30.3%
Draw
26.9%
Away win
42.8%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 30.3% | 3.30 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.9% | 3.72 | — | — |
| Arsenal | 42.8% | 2.34 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92.7% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.3% | 13.70 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 23.8% | 4.21 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 29.1% | 3.44 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 14.0% | 7.13 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 86.0% | 1.16 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| No | 44.5% | 2.25 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle / Draw | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Newcastle / Arsenal | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Draw / Arsenal | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.3
|
9.1
|
7.4
|
3.7
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
| 1 |
7.3
|
12.8
|
9.0
|
4.5
|
1.7
|
0.5
|
| 2 |
4.9
|
7.4
|
5.5
|
2.8
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
| 3 |
2.0
|
3.0
|
2.3
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.6
|
0.9
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Arsenal
1-0
Newcastle
Sep 2025
Newcastle
1-2
Arsenal
May 2025
Arsenal
1-0
Newcastle
Nov 2024
Newcastle
1-0
Arsenal
Feb 2024
Arsenal
4-1
Newcastle
Nov 2023
Newcastle
1-0
Arsenal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.