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Saturday 18 August 2018, 19:30 Stamford Bridge Full time
3–2
HT 2–2
55% 23% 22%
Home win
54.9%
Draw
22.8%
Away win
22.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 54.9% 1.82
Draw 22.8% 4.39
Arsenal 22.3% 4.48

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.4% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.6% 21.57
Over 1.5 83.6% 1.20
Under 1.5 16.4% 6.08
Over 2.5 62.2% 1.61
Under 2.5 37.8% 2.64
Over 3.5 39.9% 2.51
Under 3.5 60.1% 1.66
Over 4.5 22.1% 4.53
Under 4.5 77.9% 1.28

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 61.3% 1.63
No 38.7% 2.58

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 77.7% 1.29
Chelsea / Arsenal 77.2% 1.30
Draw / Arsenal 45.1% 2.22

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.6
4.3
3.0
1.2
0.4
0.1
1
7.5
10.4
5.9
2.4
0.7
0.2
2
8.0
9.8
5.9
2.4
0.7
0.2
3
5.3
6.5
3.9
1.6
0.5
0.1
4
2.7
3.2
2.0
0.8
0.2
0.1
5
1.1
1.3
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.