Saturday 18 August 2018, 19:30
Stamford Bridge
Full time
55%
23%
22%
Home win
54.9%
Draw
22.8%
Away win
22.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | — | — |
| Arsenal | 22.3% | 4.48 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.4% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.6% | 21.57 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 16.4% | 6.08 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 37.8% | 2.64 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 22.1% | 4.53 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| No | 38.7% | 2.58 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea / Draw | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Chelsea / Arsenal | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Draw / Arsenal | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.6
|
4.3
|
3.0
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
7.5
|
10.4
|
5.9
|
2.4
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
8.0
|
9.8
|
5.9
|
2.4
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
5.3
|
6.5
|
3.9
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
2.7
|
3.2
|
2.0
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 5 |
1.1
|
1.3
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Arsenal
2-1
Chelsea
Nov 2025
Chelsea
1-1
Arsenal
Mar 2025
Arsenal
1-0
Chelsea
Nov 2024
Chelsea
1-1
Arsenal
Apr 2024
Arsenal
5-0
Chelsea
Oct 2023
Chelsea
2-2
Arsenal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.