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Sunday 6 May 2018, 18:30 Emirates Stadium Full time
5–0
HT 2–0
59% 24% 17%
Home win
59.3%
Draw
24.1%
Away win
16.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 59.3% 1.69
Draw 24.1% 4.15
Burnley 16.6% 6.01

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.2% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.8% 12.89
Over 1.5 74.7% 1.34
Under 1.5 25.3% 3.96
Over 2.5 49.3% 2.03
Under 2.5 50.7% 1.97
Over 3.5 27.4% 3.65
Under 3.5 72.6% 1.38
Over 4.5 12.9% 7.76
Under 4.5 87.1% 1.15

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.3% 2.07
No 51.7% 1.93

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 83.4% 1.20
Arsenal / Burnley 75.9% 1.32
Draw / Burnley 40.7% 2.45

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.8
5.4
2.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
1
12.1
11.5
4.6
1.3
0.3
0.0
2
11.5
9.7
4.1
1.2
0.2
0.0
3
6.9
5.8
2.5
0.7
0.1
0.0
4
3.1
2.6
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
1.1
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.