Saturday 28 April 2018, 17:00
Turf Moor
Full time
48%
31%
20%
Home win
48.5%
Draw
31.2%
Away win
20.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Draw | 31.2% | 3.20 | — | — |
| Brighton | 20.3% | 4.92 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 85.1% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 14.9% | 6.70 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 31.1% | 3.22 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 13.5% | 7.43 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 86.5% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.9% | 20.61 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 95.1% | 1.05 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 36.8% | 2.71 | — | — |
| No | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 79.7% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Burnley / Brighton | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Draw / Brighton | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
14.9
|
9.3
|
3.5
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
16.9
|
13.2
|
4.4
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
11.0
|
7.8
|
2.8
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
4.6
|
3.2
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.4
|
1.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2026
Burnley
0-2
Brighton
Jan 2026
Brighton
2-0
Burnley
Apr 2024
Burnley
1-1
Brighton
Dec 2023
Brighton
1-1
Burnley
Feb 2022
Brighton
0-3
Burnley
Aug 2021
Burnley
1-2
Brighton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.