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Saturday 7 April 2018, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
1–2
HT 0–0
35% 31% 34%
Home win
34.9%
Draw
30.7%
Away win
34.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 34.9% 2.87
Draw 30.7% 3.25
Burnley 34.4% 2.91

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.1% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.9% 8.42
Over 1.5 65.4% 1.53
Under 1.5 34.6% 2.89
Over 2.5 37.7% 2.65
Under 2.5 62.3% 1.61
Over 3.5 18.1% 5.53
Under 3.5 81.9% 1.22
Over 4.5 7.3% 13.79
Under 4.5 92.7% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 45.3% 2.21
No 54.7% 1.83

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 65.6% 1.52
Watford / Burnley 69.3% 1.44
Draw / Burnley 65.1% 1.54

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.9
11.3
6.6
2.4
0.7
0.1
1
11.4
14.2
7.3
2.7
0.7
0.2
2
6.8
7.4
4.1
1.5
0.4
0.1
3
2.5
2.7
1.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
4
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.