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Saturday 17 March 2018, 19:30 Anfield Full time
5–0
HT 2–0
80% 13% 7%
Home win
79.6%
Draw
13.1%
Away win
7.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Liverpool 79.6% 1.26
Draw 13.1% 7.66
Watford 7.3% 13.65

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 97.5% 1.03
Under 0.5 2.5% 39.40
Over 1.5 89.7% 1.11
Under 1.5 10.3% 9.73
Over 2.5 73.3% 1.36
Under 2.5 26.7% 3.75
Over 3.5 52.9% 1.89
Under 3.5 47.1% 2.13
Over 4.5 33.5% 2.99
Under 4.5 66.5% 1.50

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.6% 1.83
No 45.4% 2.20

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Liverpool / Draw 92.7% 1.08
Liverpool / Watford 86.9% 1.15
Draw / Watford 20.4% 4.90

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.5
1.5
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
6.2
5.9
2.4
0.7
0.1
0.0
2
9.7
8.2
3.5
1.0
0.2
0.0
3
9.6
8.1
3.5
1.0
0.2
0.0
4
7.1
6.0
2.6
0.7
0.2
0.0
5
4.2
3.6
1.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: Liverpool goals. Columns: Watford goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.