Sunday 11 March 2018, 15:30
Emirates Stadium
Full time
72%
16%
11%
Home win
72.3%
Draw
16.5%
Away win
11.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Draw | 16.5% | 6.07 | — | — |
| Watford | 11.2% | 8.89 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.9% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.1% | 32.14 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 88.0% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 12.0% | 8.32 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 30.0% | 3.33 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| No | 41.6% | 2.40 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal / Draw | 88.8% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Arsenal / Watford | 83.5% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Draw / Watford | 27.7% | 3.61 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.1
|
2.2
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
6.7
|
7.4
|
3.4
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
9.4
|
9.2
|
4.5
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
8.2
|
8.0
|
3.9
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
5.4
|
5.3
|
2.6
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.9
|
2.8
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2022
Watford
2-3
Arsenal
Nov 2021
Arsenal
1-0
Watford
Jul 2020
Arsenal
3-2
Watford
Sep 2019
Watford
2-2
Arsenal
Apr 2019
Watford
0-1
Arsenal
Sep 2018
Arsenal
2-0
Watford
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.