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Sunday 11 March 2018, 15:30 Emirates Stadium Full time
3–0
HT 1–0
72% 16% 11%
Home win
72.3%
Draw
16.5%
Away win
11.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 72.3% 1.38
Draw 16.5% 6.07
Watford 11.2% 8.89

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.9% 1.03
Under 0.5 3.1% 32.14
Over 1.5 88.0% 1.14
Under 1.5 12.0% 8.32
Over 2.5 70.0% 1.43
Under 2.5 30.0% 3.33
Over 3.5 48.8% 2.05
Under 3.5 51.2% 1.95
Over 4.5 29.6% 3.38
Under 4.5 70.4% 1.42

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 58.4% 1.71
No 41.6% 2.40

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 88.8% 1.13
Arsenal / Watford 83.5% 1.20
Draw / Watford 27.7% 3.61

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.1
2.2
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
1
6.7
7.4
3.4
1.1
0.3
0.1
2
9.4
9.2
4.5
1.5
0.4
0.1
3
8.2
8.0
3.9
1.3
0.3
0.1
4
5.4
5.3
2.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
5
2.9
2.8
1.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Watford goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.