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Thursday 1 March 2018, 21:45 Emirates Stadium Full time
31% 23% 45%
Home win
31.4%
Draw
23.4%
Away win
45.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal 31.4% 3.19
Draw 23.4% 4.27
Manchester City 45.2% 2.21

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.2% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.8% 26.01
Over 1.5 86.1% 1.16
Under 1.5 13.9% 7.19
Over 2.5 66.4% 1.51
Under 2.5 33.6% 2.97
Over 3.5 44.6% 2.24
Under 3.5 55.4% 1.80
Over 4.5 25.9% 3.86
Under 4.5 74.1% 1.35

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 67.1% 1.49
No 32.9% 3.04

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Arsenal / Draw 54.8% 1.83
Arsenal / Manchester City 76.6% 1.31
Draw / Manchester City 68.6% 1.46

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.8
5.6
5.8
3.6
1.7
0.6
1
4.5
10.0
8.9
5.6
2.6
1.0
2
3.9
7.3
6.9
4.3
2.0
0.8
3
2.0
3.8
3.5
2.2
1.0
0.4
4
0.8
1.4
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.2
5
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.