Saturday 20 January 2018, 19:30
Etihad Stadium
Full time
82%
13%
5%
Home win
81.8%
Draw
12.9%
Away win
5.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Draw | 12.9% | 7.72 | — | — |
| Newcastle | 5.2% | 19.18 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.0% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.0% | 24.83 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 84.5% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 15.5% | 6.46 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 35.9% | 2.79 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 23.8% | 4.21 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
| No | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City / Draw | 94.8% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Manchester City / Newcastle | 87.1% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Draw / Newcastle | 18.2% | 5.51 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.0
|
1.8
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
9.7
|
6.2
|
1.7
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
13.6
|
7.9
|
2.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
12.4
|
7.2
|
2.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
8.4
|
4.9
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
4.6
|
2.7
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Manchester City
2-1
Newcastle
Nov 2025
Newcastle
2-1
Manchester City
Feb 2025
Manchester City
4-0
Newcastle
Sep 2024
Newcastle
1-1
Manchester City
Jan 2024
Newcastle
2-3
Manchester City
Aug 2023
Manchester City
1-0
Newcastle
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.