Wednesday 27 December 2017, 21:45
St James' Park
Full time
10%
17%
72%
Home win
10.3%
Draw
17.5%
Away win
72.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 10.3% | 9.76 | — | — |
| Draw | 17.5% | 5.72 | — | — |
| Manchester City | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.5% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.5% | 22.40 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 16.4% | 6.10 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 37.6% | 2.66 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 22.3% | 4.49 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| No | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle / Draw | 27.7% | 3.61 | — | — |
| Newcastle / Manchester City | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Draw / Manchester City | 89.7% | 1.11 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.5
|
9.2
|
11.6
|
9.3
|
5.6
|
2.7
|
| 1 |
2.8
|
8.3
|
9.4
|
7.6
|
4.5
|
2.2
|
| 2 |
1.3
|
3.2
|
3.8
|
3.1
|
1.8
|
0.9
|
| 3 |
0.4
|
0.9
|
1.0
|
0.8
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
| 4 |
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Manchester City
2-1
Newcastle
Nov 2025
Newcastle
2-1
Manchester City
Feb 2025
Manchester City
4-0
Newcastle
Sep 2024
Newcastle
1-1
Manchester City
Jan 2024
Newcastle
2-3
Manchester City
Aug 2023
Manchester City
1-0
Newcastle
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.