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Saturday 2 December 2017, 14:30 Stamford Bridge Full time
3–1
HT 2–1
80% 14% 6%
Home win
80.1%
Draw
14.2%
Away win
5.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea 80.1% 1.25
Draw 14.2% 7.04
Newcastle 5.7% 17.56

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.2% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.8% 20.97
Over 1.5 82.3% 1.22
Under 1.5 17.7% 5.64
Over 2.5 60.4% 1.65
Under 2.5 39.6% 2.53
Over 3.5 38.1% 2.62
Under 3.5 61.9% 1.62
Over 4.5 20.6% 4.85
Under 4.5 79.4% 1.26

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 40.2% 2.49
No 59.8% 1.67

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Chelsea / Draw 94.3% 1.06
Chelsea / Newcastle 85.8% 1.17
Draw / Newcastle 19.9% 5.03

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.8
2.1
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
1
10.9
6.7
1.8
0.3
0.0
0.0
2
14.4
8.1
2.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
12.3
6.9
2.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
4
7.9
4.4
1.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
4.0
2.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Newcastle goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.