Monday 30 October 2017, 22:00
Turf Moor
Full time
33%
34%
33%
Home win
33.4%
Draw
33.6%
Away win
33.0%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 33.4% | 2.99 | — | — |
| Draw | 33.6% | 2.98 | — | — |
| Newcastle | 33.0% | 3.03 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 84.1% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 15.9% | 6.28 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 29.3% | 3.41 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 70.7% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 12.3% | 8.10 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 87.7% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.3% | 23.15 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 95.7% | 1.05 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
| No | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Burnley / Newcastle | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Draw / Newcastle | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
15.9
|
13.4
|
6.7
|
2.1
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
13.5
|
14.3
|
6.3
|
2.0
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
6.8
|
6.4
|
3.0
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
2.1
|
2.0
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Dec 2025
Burnley
1-3
Newcastle
Dec 2025
Newcastle
2-1
Burnley
May 2024
Burnley
1-4
Newcastle
Sep 2023
Newcastle
2-0
Burnley
May 2022
Burnley
1-2
Newcastle
Dec 2021
Newcastle
1-0
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.