Sunday 1 October 2017, 18:30
St James' Park
Full time
31%
28%
41%
Home win
31.4%
Draw
28.1%
Away win
40.5%
Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 31.4% | 3.19 | — | — |
| Draw | 28.1% | 3.55 | — | — |
| Liverpool | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.3% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.7% | 11.54 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 27.2% | 3.67 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 25.0% | 3.99 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 11.4% | 8.78 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 88.6% | 1.13 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| No | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle / Draw | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Newcastle / Liverpool | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Draw / Liverpool | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.7
|
10.0
|
7.4
|
3.4
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
| 1 |
8.5
|
13.4
|
8.6
|
3.9
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
| 2 |
5.4
|
7.4
|
5.1
|
2.3
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
2.1
|
2.9
|
2.0
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.6
|
0.8
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Liverpool
4-1
Newcastle
Aug 2025
Newcastle
2-3
Liverpool
Feb 2025
Liverpool
2-0
Newcastle
Dec 2024
Newcastle
3-3
Liverpool
Jan 2024
Liverpool
4-2
Newcastle
Aug 2023
Newcastle
1-2
Liverpool
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.