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Saturday 16 September 2017, 17:00 St James' Park Full time
52% 29% 19%
Home win
52.3%
Draw
29.1%
Away win
18.6%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Newcastle 52.3% 1.91
Draw 29.1% 3.43
Stoke City 18.6% 5.38

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 87.1% 1.15
Under 0.5 12.9% 7.76
Over 1.5 62.9% 1.59
Under 1.5 37.1% 2.70
Over 2.5 35.2% 2.84
Under 2.5 64.8% 1.54
Over 3.5 16.3% 6.15
Under 3.5 83.7% 1.19
Over 4.5 6.3% 15.93
Under 4.5 93.7% 1.07

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 39.2% 2.55
No 60.8% 1.64

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Newcastle / Draw 81.4% 1.23
Newcastle / Stoke City 70.9% 1.41
Draw / Stoke City 47.7% 2.10

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.9
8.0
3.1
0.8
0.1
0.0
1
16.2
12.9
4.4
1.0
0.2
0.0
2
11.7
8.4
3.0
0.7
0.1
0.0
3
5.4
3.9
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
1.9
1.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Newcastle goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.