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Saturday 12 August 2017, 17:00 Goodison Park Full time
1–0
HT 1–0
61% 23% 15%
Home win
61.4%
Draw
23.2%
Away win
15.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Everton 61.4% 1.63
Draw 23.2% 4.31
Stoke City 15.4% 6.49

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.6% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.4% 13.55
Over 1.5 75.7% 1.32
Under 1.5 24.3% 4.11
Over 2.5 50.5% 1.98
Under 2.5 49.5% 2.02
Over 3.5 28.5% 3.51
Under 3.5 71.5% 1.40
Over 4.5 13.6% 7.34
Under 4.5 86.4% 1.16

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.2% 2.08
No 51.8% 1.93

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Everton / Draw 84.6% 1.18
Everton / Stoke City 76.8% 1.30
Draw / Stoke City 38.6% 2.59

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.4
5.0
2.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
1
12.0
11.1
4.3
1.2
0.2
0.0
2
11.8
9.7
4.0
1.1
0.2
0.0
3
7.3
6.1
2.5
0.7
0.1
0.0
4
3.4
2.8
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
1.3
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Stoke City goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.