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Saturday 13 May 2017, 19:30 bet365 Stadium Full time
1–4
HT 0–1
27% 26% 47%
Home win
26.9%
Draw
26.2%
Away win
46.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Stoke City 26.9% 3.72
Draw 26.2% 3.81
Arsenal 46.9% 2.13

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.9% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.1% 14.10
Over 1.5 76.8% 1.30
Under 1.5 23.2% 4.30
Over 2.5 51.9% 1.93
Under 2.5 48.1% 2.08
Over 3.5 29.7% 3.36
Under 3.5 70.3% 1.42
Over 4.5 14.5% 6.91
Under 4.5 85.5% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 55.3% 1.81
No 44.7% 2.24

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Stoke City / Draw 53.1% 1.88
Stoke City / Arsenal 73.8% 1.36
Draw / Arsenal 73.1% 1.37

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.1
9.5
8.1
4.3
1.7
0.6
1
6.7
12.5
9.4
5.0
2.0
0.6
2
4.3
6.8
5.4
2.9
1.2
0.4
3
1.6
2.6
2.1
1.1
0.4
0.1
4
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Stoke City goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.