Sunday 1 April 2018, 15:30
Emirates Stadium
Full time
75%
16%
9%
Home win
75.1%
Draw
15.8%
Away win
9.0%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Draw | 15.8% | 6.32 | — | — |
| Stoke City | 9.0% | 11.08 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.3% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.7% | 26.77 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 85.8% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 14.2% | 7.05 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 33.9% | 2.95 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 25.7% | 3.89 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| No | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal / Draw | 91.0% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Arsenal / Stoke City | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Draw / Stoke City | 24.9% | 4.02 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.7
|
2.3
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
8.2
|
7.4
|
2.8
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
11.1
|
9.1
|
3.7
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
9.6
|
7.8
|
3.2
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
6.2
|
5.1
|
2.1
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
3.2
|
2.6
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.