Monday 12 March 2018, 22:00
bet365 Stadium
Full time
10%
17%
74%
Home win
9.5%
Draw
16.9%
Away win
73.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 9.5% | 10.47 | — | — |
| Draw | 16.9% | 5.93 | — | — |
| Manchester City | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.7% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.3% | 23.08 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 16.0% | 6.24 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 37.0% | 2.70 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 22.8% | 4.38 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| No | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City / Draw | 26.4% | 3.78 | — | — |
| Stoke City / Manchester City | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Draw / Manchester City | 90.5% | 1.11 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.3
|
9.1
|
11.7
|
9.6
|
5.9
|
2.9
|
| 1 |
2.6
|
8.0
|
9.3
|
7.6
|
4.7
|
2.3
|
| 2 |
1.2
|
3.0
|
3.7
|
3.0
|
1.8
|
0.9
|
| 3 |
0.3
|
0.8
|
1.0
|
0.8
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
| 4 |
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Oct 2017
Manchester City
7-2
Stoke City
Mar 2017
Manchester City
0-0
Stoke City
Aug 2016
Stoke City
1-4
Manchester City
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.