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Sunday 4 March 2018, 18:00 Etihad Stadium Full time
56% 23% 21%
Home win
55.6%
Draw
23.4%
Away win
21.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City 55.6% 1.80
Draw 23.4% 4.28
Chelsea 21.1% 4.75

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.5% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.5% 18.30
Over 1.5 81.1% 1.23
Under 1.5 18.9% 5.29
Over 2.5 58.3% 1.72
Under 2.5 41.7% 2.40
Over 3.5 35.9% 2.79
Under 3.5 64.1% 1.56
Over 4.5 18.9% 5.28
Under 4.5 81.1% 1.23

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 57.8% 1.73
No 42.2% 2.37

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City / Draw 78.9% 1.27
Manchester City / Chelsea 76.6% 1.30
Draw / Chelsea 44.4% 2.25

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.5
4.8
3.0
1.1
0.3
0.1
1
8.7
10.9
5.7
2.1
0.6
0.1
2
8.9
9.9
5.5
2.0
0.6
0.1
3
5.7
6.3
3.5
1.3
0.4
0.1
4
2.7
3.0
1.7
0.6
0.2
0.0
5
1.0
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.