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Saturday 20 January 2018, 14:30 American Express Community Stadium Full time
0–4
HT 0–2
13% 26% 61%
Home win
12.6%
Draw
26.0%
Away win
61.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Brighton 12.6% 7.91
Draw 26.0% 3.84
Chelsea 61.3% 1.63

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 87.8% 1.14
Under 0.5 12.2% 8.17
Over 1.5 64.0% 1.56
Under 1.5 36.0% 2.78
Over 2.5 36.5% 2.74
Under 2.5 63.5% 1.57
Over 3.5 17.2% 5.83
Under 3.5 82.8% 1.21
Over 4.5 6.8% 14.80
Under 4.5 93.2% 1.07

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 35.3% 2.83
No 64.7% 1.55

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Brighton / Draw 38.7% 2.58
Brighton / Chelsea 74.0% 1.35
Draw / Chelsea 87.4% 1.14

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.2
17.7
14.5
7.6
3.0
0.9
1
6.0
11.2
8.3
4.4
1.7
0.5
2
1.9
3.0
2.4
1.3
0.5
0.2
3
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Brighton goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.