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Monday 5 February 2018, 22:00 Vicarage Road Full time
4–1
HT 1–0
14% 21% 66%
Home win
13.7%
Draw
20.5%
Away win
65.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 13.7% 7.28
Draw 20.5% 4.87
Chelsea 65.7% 1.52

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.5% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.5% 18.32
Over 1.5 80.9% 1.24
Under 1.5 19.1% 5.22
Over 2.5 58.0% 1.72
Under 2.5 42.0% 2.38
Over 3.5 35.6% 2.81
Under 3.5 64.4% 1.55
Over 4.5 18.7% 5.34
Under 4.5 81.3% 1.23

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.1% 1.92
No 47.9% 2.09

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 34.3% 2.92
Watford / Chelsea 79.5% 1.26
Draw / Chelsea 86.3% 1.16

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.5
9.9
11.2
8.0
4.3
1.8
1
3.8
9.8
9.8
7.0
3.7
1.6
2
1.9
4.0
4.3
3.1
1.6
0.7
3
0.6
1.2
1.3
0.9
0.5
0.2
4
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.