Saturday 30 December 2017, 17:00
Vicarage Road
Full time
51%
26%
23%
Home win
50.9%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
23.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Draw | 25.7% | 3.89 | — | — |
| Swansea | 23.4% | 4.28 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 92.8% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 7.2% | 13.87 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 23.6% | 4.23 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 29.3% | 3.42 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 14.2% | 7.06 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 85.8% | 1.17 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| No | 46.2% | 2.16 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford / Draw | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Watford / Swansea | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Draw / Swansea | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
7.2
|
6.2
|
3.7
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
10.2
|
12.2
|
6.1
|
2.2
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
9.1
|
9.6
|
5.1
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
5.1
|
5.4
|
2.8
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
2.1
|
2.2
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.