Skip to content
Saturday 9 December 2017, 17:00 Turf Moor Full time
1–0
HT 1–0
47% 28% 25%
Home win
46.8%
Draw
28.2%
Away win
25.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Burnley 46.8% 2.14
Draw 28.2% 3.54
Watford 25.0% 4.00

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.2% 1.11
Under 0.5 9.8% 10.25
Over 1.5 70.1% 1.43
Under 1.5 29.9% 3.34
Over 2.5 43.2% 2.31
Under 2.5 56.8% 1.76
Over 3.5 22.3% 4.49
Under 3.5 77.7% 1.29
Over 4.5 9.7% 10.33
Under 4.5 90.3% 1.11

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.2% 2.07
No 51.8% 1.93

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Burnley / Draw 75.0% 1.33
Burnley / Watford 71.8% 1.39
Draw / Watford 53.2% 1.88

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.8
8.0
4.3
1.4
0.3
0.1
1
12.1
13.3
6.1
2.0
0.5
0.1
2
9.2
9.0
4.4
1.4
0.4
0.1
3
4.4
4.3
2.1
0.7
0.2
0.0
4
1.6
1.5
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Burnley goals. Columns: Watford goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.