Sunday 19 August 2018, 15:30
Turf Moor
Full time
48%
29%
22%
Home win
48.4%
Draw
29.3%
Away win
22.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
| Draw | 29.3% | 3.41 | — | — |
| Watford | 22.3% | 4.48 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88.2% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.8% | 8.47 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 34.6% | 2.89 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 37.8% | 2.64 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 18.1% | 5.52 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.3% | 13.73 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 92.7% | 1.08 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 43.0% | 2.32 | — | — |
| No | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Burnley / Watford | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Draw / Watford | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
11.8
|
8.5
|
3.9
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
14.3
|
13.4
|
5.3
|
1.5
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.3
|
8.6
|
3.6
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
4.7
|
3.9
|
1.6
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.6
|
1.3
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2022
Watford
1-2
Burnley
Feb 2022
Burnley
0-0
Watford
Jun 2020
Burnley
1-0
Watford
Nov 2019
Watford
0-3
Burnley
Jan 2019
Watford
0-0
Burnley
Apr 2018
Watford
1-2
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.